Statistics
Openings: 27 stores
Albertsons: 1
American Freight: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
Dick's Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 9
Dollar Tree: 2
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Five Below: 3
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Sears Appliance: 3
Walgreens: 1
Closings: 5 stores
Bed Bath & Beyond: 1
CVS: 1
Dollar General: 1
Office Depot: 1
Walgreens: 1
Openings: 19 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Aldi: 4
Burlington Coat Factory: 2
Crunch Fitness: 1
CVS: 1
Dollar General: 3
Five Below: 3
Publix: 3
True Value Company: 1
Closings: 10 stores
American Freight: 1
CVS: 1
GFS Marketplace: 2
Harveys Supermarket: 1
Publix: 1
Save-A-Lot: 2
Sears Appliance: 2
The open air REITs have nearly recovered all of their COVID losses. The average open air REIT's stock is currently only about 10% below their pre-COVID levels. At this price level, the stock market is indicating that open air centers are currently worth about 5% less than their pre-COVID prices. We predict a full recovery by the end of 2021. Onward!
South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA
Openings: 55 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
Aldi: 1
American Freight: 3
Big Lots: 2
Citi Trends: 1
Dollar General: 17
Dollar Tree: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Five Below: 4
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Hobby Lobby: 3
HomeGoods: 3
La-Z-Boy Incorporated: 1
Lidl: 1
Marshall’s: 2
Michaels Stores: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 2
Planet Fitness: 1
Rooms To Go: 1
Walgreens: 2
Closinsg: 32 stores
American Freight: 1
Badcock Furniture: 1
Bed Bath & Beyond: 6
Belk Department Store: 1
Big Lots: 2
Citi Trends: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Gabe’s Discount: 1
Goodwill: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
La-Z-Boy Incorporated: 1
Michaels Stores: 2
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Staples: 1
True Value Company: 1
Walgreens: 2
Wal-Mart: 1
Openings: 27 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Aldi: 1
CVS: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 9
El Rancho Supermarket: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Five Below: 2
Floor and Decor: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
Michaels Stores: 2
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 2
Ross: 1
Tom Thumb: 1
Walgreens: 1
Closings: 6 stores
Dollar General: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Regal Cinemas: 1
Rooms To Go Kids: 1
Walgreens: 1
Openings: 28 stores
Aldi: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 3
CVS: 1
Dick's Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 9
Five Below: 4
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Michaels Stores: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Rooms To Go: 1
Rooms To Go Kids: 1
Ross: 1
TJ Maxx: 1
Closings: 11 stores
Bed Bath & Beyond: 3
Books A Million: 2
Dollar General: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Publix: 2
TJ Maxx: 2
South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA
Openings: 46 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation :2
Aldi: 1
AMC: 1
American Freight: 1
Ashley Furniture: 1
Badcock Furniture: 1
Citi Trends: 1
Crunch Fitness: 3
Dollar General: 13
Dollar Tree: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 7
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 3
Haverty's Furniture: 1
Lidl: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 3
Planet Fitness: 2
Publix: 1
True Value Company: 1
Walgreens: 1
Closings: 38 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
AMC: 1
Ashley Furniture: 2
Bed Bath & Beyond: 4
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
CVS: 3
Dick's Sporting Goods: 3
Dollar General: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Gabe's Discount: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 2
Michaels Stores: 1
O2 Fitness Club: 1
Office Depot: 4
Office Max: 2
Party City: 1
Petco": 3
Save-A-Lot: 4
Walgreens: 1
Openings: 17 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
CVS: 1
Dollar General: 5
Dollar Tree: 2
Family Dollar Stores: 4
Floor and Decor: 1
Planet Fitness: 2
Closings: 2 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Openings: 15 stores
Aldi: 2
Dollar General: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 3
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
LA Fitness: 1
Planet Fitness: 2
Walgreens: 1
Closings: 11 stores
Big Lots: 1
Citi Trends: 1
Kirkland's, Inc.: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Office Depot: 3
Planet Fitness: 1
Save-A-Lot: 2
Staples: 1
Major open-air retail REIT stocks had a major rally over the last 30 days and they have now recovered more than half of their losses. Clearly, investors see green shoots, but there is still a long way to go. As a group the REITs are trading at a huge discount to their NAV, net asset value. REITs own about 20% of major metro retail assets. Is the market telling us that the nimble entrepreneur shopping center owners will beat out the big corporate players? I'm rooting for the little guy!
Who turned out the lights? Retail investment sales crashed in 2020 nearly matching the catastrophic year of 2009. It hardly ever gets worse than that. Florida is a bellwether state in the US and we watch it like a hawk. Just multiply what's happening in Florida by 15 and that’s happening in the entire US. We’ve posted the details on all the retail property sales over $15M that occurred in the major metropolitan areas of Florida over the last three years on our blog.
Our reports include: prices, cap rates, buyers, sellers, brokers, NOI and even the vacancy at the time of sale. The more everyone knows about what's really happening the better off our marketplace will be. Onward!
When I was born there were only 3.0B people. Today there are nearly 8.0B and somehow, in the last 60 years, we managed to thrive. The world population is projected to reach 9.9 billion by 2050, an increase of more than 25% from the current 2020 population of 7.8 billion. Total fertility rates are below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman in 91 countries and territories, mostly in Asia and Europe, as well as in the United States. What a great time to be alive. Notice that the world's population growth rate is dropping like a rock. America is still the leader. Let's all help keep it that way.
“The world population is projected to reach 9.9 billion by 2050, an increase of more than 25% from the current 2020 population of 7.8 billion”
Every once and awhile you see something that leaves you speechless. This chart is from a report just issued by Eastdil Secured and it hit me like a gut punch. I couldn't believe that I had missed something that was so obvious. All of the major classes of commercial real estate over the last 15 years have grown their rental streams by 3-4% annually. But there is one glaring exception, and that is retail properties which did not have any rental growth over the last 15 years. Now, during that period, retail sales grew by 3.75% per year, and yet, retail is still at the levels of 2005. That is shocking. What do you think about this? Please post a comment.
These are 2020 sales in Florida major markets: Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville.
If you find something is missing or in error, please send an email to lhoyer@woolbright.net.
These are 2019 sales in Florida major markets: Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville.
If you find something is missing or in error, please send an email to lhoyer@woolbright.net.
These are 2018 sales in Florida major markets: Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville.
If you find something is missing or in error, please send an email to lhoyer@woolbright.net.
In the last 30 years, the forces of creative destruction blasted away on the top 10 retail performers. Today, only 4 remain on the top 10 list and the other 6 are gone forever. Was that 30 year struggle an apocalypse? Not at all, it's just the innovative cycle that makes America the strongest nation in the world.
Every 15 years, half of the S&P 500 companies are dropped from the list. The same is true for the top 10 US retailers. Which 5 companies will get dropped from this list by 2035? I wish I knew, but whatever happens we will all be much better off.
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Aldi: 1
Cinemark USA: 1
Citi Trends: 3
Crunch Fitness: 1
CVS: 3
Dollar General: 9
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 3
Five Below: 2
Floor and Decor: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 5
Office Depot: 4
Old Navy: 1
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 2
Petco: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Ross: 2
Updated: 2/9/202124 Hour Fitness: 1
AMC: 1
Barnes & Noble: 1
Bealls Department Store (Stage): 5
Bed Bath & Beyond: 6
Cost Plus World Market: 3
Dollar General: 2
JC Penney: 1
Office Depot: 1
Office Max: 5
Powerhouse Gym: 1
Ross: 1
Staples: 1
Risk analysis: what if every financially weak big box tenant in the US went out of business? Big box retailers are 80% of the US retail platform. The way they go portends the state of the whole system. Most markets in the US are severed by about 100 big box brands – everything from Walmart to Walgreens.
Today, in each major US market, about 20 of the 100 big box companies are suffering financial stress. Many had problems well before COVID. Back in April of 2020, I realized that these weak tenants accounted for only about 6% of US retail space and, more surprisingly, they accounted for only 3% of the sales. If all the weak box retailers shut down, the remaining 80 retailers could easily absorb their sales.
About two thirds of these weak firms have already filed bankruptcy and most of them have reemerged with a fresh start and only a handful have been liquidated. A few others, like AMC Theaters have raised capital without bankruptcy. The system is very resilient. There is no retail apocalypse. It’s the circle of life – Simba defeats Scar.
The 2020 retailer bankruptcies are not a bad sign. They allow the system to purge imbalances. The talk of “thousands of retailer bankruptcies portend an retail apocalypse” is nonsense in a system that just closed 50,000 stores with only 1-2% drop in occupancy. In 2020, the average open-air center lost just one small business. Of course, every closing is tragic at some level, but the system is strong and will soon recover.
Only a small handful of national retailers are using bankruptcy. There are only about 100 companies occupying 15 or more boxes in Florida, they range from Walmart to Walgreens. All told, they have 80% of the GLA and 11,000 locations. About 10 of them need the help of bankruptcy to get a fresh start. About 5 are non-viable and need to liquidate, like Earth Fare, SteinMart, Pier 1 and Lucky’s Markets. In 2020, 24 Hour Fitness, Tuesday Morning, Guitar Center, JC Penny, Old Time Pottery, Men's Warehouse used chapter 11 to shed unprofitable stores, eliminate excess leverage and build liquidity. They are off again with a fresh start. It's the American way and it works. There is no retail apocalypse.